Fishing bans in Chinese waters: Effectiveness and spillovers
利用夜间船只探测数据和断点回归设计，发现中国季节性禁渔令使专属经济区内船只探测减少72%，但禁令后期合规性减弱，且存在向邻国水域的监管溢出效应。
China’s large-scale seasonal fishing bans aim to promote sustainable fisheries, yet their effectiveness remains uncertain given the challenges of monitoring vast ocean areas. Using a novel dataset of nighttime vessel detections and a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design, we find that the bans reduce boat detections within China’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by 72%, with a sharp increase upon lifting. Boat detections also decline in neighboring EEZs at the start of China’s bans, indicating regulatory spillovers. Data from AIS-equipped vessels reveal that Chinese boats operate in neighboring EEZs, while foreign vessels fish in the Chinese EEZ. Compliance weakens in the later stages of the bans, with more boats detected in areas with favorable conditions. My findings suggest that command-and-control approaches can be effective for fishery management in contexts where market-based alternatives may not be practical. The results also underscore the importance of addressing regulatory spillovers and strengthening complementary enforcement.