What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?
通过估计价格、工资和通胀预期的动态模型，发现美国近期通胀主要源于价格冲击而非过热劳动市场，但劳动市场失衡对工资和通胀有更持久的影响。
We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect on wage growth and inflation. Controlling inflation will, thus, ultimately require achieving a better balance of labor demand and supply.