Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey
通过一项面向代表性企业样本的调查，研究不确定性冲击对企业管理者预期投资、就业和生产的动态影响，并发现调整成本有助于解释企业反应，支持实物期权渠道。
This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across types and sectors. They help explain firms' reactions to the shock, which provides evidence for the relevance of real options channels. We compare the findings to DSGE and VAR results.