Hidden Costs of War: Evidence from Nepal’s Maoist Insurgency
研究发现尼泊尔毛派叛乱期间，农户因应对实物税而扩大高风险非谷物作物种植，导致收入波动加剧，风险厌恶农户福利下降16.35%。
Abstract This paper shows that farm revenue variance among Nepalese households increased during the 1996–2006 Maoist insurgency. This increase was partly driven by households in high-conflict areas expanding their crop portfolios to include more risky non-cereal crops, shifting from predominantly cereals to a mix of cereals and non-cereals, as an adaptive strategy to mitigate losses from Maoist in-kind taxes on cereals. However, this strategy exposed households to greater revenue risk. A one-standard-deviation increase in conflict exposure led the average household to increase its non-cereal crops from 4.36 to 6.01, a 37.84 percent rise, while keeping the same number of cereal crops. As a result, a risk-averse agricultural household experienced a 16.35 percent decline in welfare.