Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment
通过田野实验向美国家庭提供不同的专家预测，发现房主对房价预期不敏感，而租客预期房价上涨时会减少支出，反映了财富效应和收入效应的不同影响。
We conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior.