The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending
利用125年美国数据发现，军事支出因转向研发而长期提振产出，公共研发支出超越商业周期刺激经济，而公共投资效果较短，公共消费影响微弱。
Military spending has large and persistent effects on output because it shifts the composition of public spending toward R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium term and increases productivity and GDP at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived, while public consumption has a modest impact at most horizons. We reach these conclusions using BVAR with long lags and 125 years of US data, including newly reconstructed series of government spending by main categories since 1890.