Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market
研究匹配2008-2010年经济学博士候选人的调查数据与截至2022年的职业记录，发现女性在终身教职和发表方面的期望低于男性约10个百分点，且期望差距能解释约22%的终身教职差距和14%的发表差距。
This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.