Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes
研究人们在形成关于集体结果的信念时是否存在自利偏差，发现这种偏差与个人结果信念中的偏差类似，且市场机制可能加剧集体自欺，预期效用是主要驱动因素。
Beliefs about collective outcomes play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we investigate whether self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs about individual outcomes—affect beliefs about collective outcomes. In a first study, we find that people indeed exhibit self-serving biases for collective outcomes, and that such biases are similar to biases for individual outcomes. We also observe that the presence of a market institution for aggregating private information produces, if anything, slightly greater collective self-delusion. In a second study, we investigate the mechanisms driving collective self-delusion and find that anticipatory utility plays a large role, rather than ego-utility considerations.