Analysis of the ripple effects of disruptions on multimodal container terminals operations: a System Dynamics approach
该研究构建了一个微观系统动力学模型，首次量化了多式联运集装箱码头内局部中断（如岸吊故障、堆场拥堵）对其他运营环节的涟漪效应，并通过真实事故场景模拟揭示了内部传播机制，为提升港口韧性提供策略支持。
Current port risk analyses primarily examine disruptions at an overall port level and their impacts on the broader supply chain. However, they generally overlook how disruptions originating from a specific local-level component within a multimodal port (e.g., liner shipping, feeder shipping, rail transport, trucking, or yard operations) can propagate internally and affect other operational sectors within the port. To address this gap, this study develops a novel microscopic-level System Dynamics (SD) model to quantify these internal ripple effects explicitly for the first time. Unlike existing macro-level SD studies in Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) that often oversimplify internal causal relationships, the proposed microscopic SD model accurately captures direct operational dependencies and interactions within a multimodal container terminal. Multiple disruption scenarios derived from real-world accident records and field investigations are simulated to assess their effects on port performance comprehensively. The results demonstrate that disruptions such as quay crane failures and yard traffic congestion significantly impair operational efficiency. Notably, yard congestion triggers considerable delays in seaside operations and leads to substantial container accumulation, illustrating the internal ripple effects clearly. Detailed scenario analysis enhances the understanding of these complex ripple effects, supporting robust and holistic strategies for improving port resilience.