Assessment of Qatar’s road network under sea-level-rise scenarios using traffic simulation and graph theory
该研究结合地理空间分析、交通仿真和图论，评估海平面上升对卡塔尔道路网络的影响，发现约2-17%的道路可能受影响，行程时间最多增加15倍，并检验了图指标在韧性评估中的有效性。
Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens every dimension of sustainable development, testing infrastructure resilience and adaptation. This research develops a multi-stage framework to evaluate road network vulnerability under varying SLR scenarios through geospatial analysis, traffic simulation, and graph theory. High-resolution maps derived from IPCC-AR6 and NOAA projections show that without adaptation measures, SLR may affect approximately 3–11% of land and 2–17% of roads in Qatar, potentially increasing trip durations up to 15 times. Importantly, the estimated impacts are indicative trends rather than definitive outcomes linked to specific emissions scenarios. In parallel, the paper examines the effectiveness of several graph metrics in evaluating road network performance under SLR-induced disruptions. The goal of this exercise is to identify metrics that strongly correlate with severity levels and simulation outcomes, supporting their utility in resilience assessment. Finally, the paper outlines a practical roadmap to advance SLR risk simulation and support the development of effective adaptation strategies to enhance Qatar’s resilience. The adaptability of the proposed framework and roadmap also enables their application to other geographical contexts, with minimal refinement and appropriate localization. Future research may extend this work by incorporating localized and temporal dynamics and analyzing additional critical infrastructure systems.