Heterogeneity in Imperfect Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence from a Novel Survey
利用德国调查数据，研究家庭形成通胀预期的异质性，发现预期形成的巨大异质性将通胀冲击对总消费的传导放大了一个数量级，并显著增加了其持续性，从而解释了2020年德国临时增值税削减带来的消费效应。
Abstract Using survey data from Germany, we study heterogeneity in how households form inflation expectations. We elicit (i) uncertainty in perceptions of current inflation and (ii) how persistent households perceive inflation to be. Combining these with standard survey questions on inflation, we infer laws of motion for expectations at the individual level. Based on averages alone, a standard model calibrated to our data predicts inflation shocks generate small and transitory responses in expectations and consumption. The considerable heterogeneity we observe in expectation formation, however, amplifies the transmission to aggregate consumption by an order of magnitude, and substantially increases its persistence. This amplification enables the model to match the large consumption effects of the temporary Value Added Tax (VAT) cut in Germany in 2020.