The Economics of Sanctions: From Theory into Practice
评估了2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后西方制裁的效果，发现其影响有限，并提出了一个理论框架来理解制裁的复杂性和权衡，强调需要明确目标和全面策略。
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly following its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite the unprecedented scope and scale of these sanctions, their impact on Russia's economy has been mixed, with only moderate contraction reported by official Russian statistics. We combine an empirical assessment of these sanctions with the development of a theoretical framework to better understand the complexities and trade-offs in their application. Sanctions, while a critical tool of economic statecraft, are not a guaranteed solution to end wars or alter a country's behavior. To impose effective costs, we advocate for a comprehensive, technocratic approach with clear, measurable objectives, rather than a piecemeal strategy. The efficacy of sanctions depends on factors such as the target country's size and global integration, the sanctioning coalition's unity, the ability to enforce sanctions, and the economic burden on sanctioning nations. The paper underscores the importance of realistic expectations and careful design of sanctions policy on trade, finance, and payment systems.