Large Fires and the Rise of Fire Insurance in Early Twentieth-Century Japan
利用日本30年县级面板数据，研究发现大火刺激了火灾保险新保单和续保增长，但随后因道德风险导致小型纵火案增加。
We explore the role that large fires played in the early development of the Japanese fire insurance industry. Using a prefecture-level data set spanning 30 years, our econometric analysis shows that large fires led to an increase in new policies and policy renewals, consistent with historical narratives that insurance companies used these events to advertise their business. We also show that this subsequent surge in policies led to more small fires due to arson. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it is more likely to have been due to moral hazard rather than adverse selection.