机器人化、内部移民与农村衰落

Robotization, internal migration and rural decline

Journal of Population Economics · 2025
被引 4
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

首次分析机器人化对内部移民和农村衰落的影响,利用奥地利数据发现机器人化导致制造业就业下降,引发农村向城市移民,解释了2003-2016年间约四分之一的城乡净移民,主要由年轻和中低技能人群驱动。

Abstract

Abstract This paper is the first to analyze the effects of robotization on internal migration flows and rural decline, which is an important driving force of societal and political polarization in many developed economies. Using detailed migration flow data from Austria, I show that robotization has caused significant declines in manufacturing employment, to which populations reacted by increasingly migrating out of affected regions. Since rural regions rely much more than cities on manufacturing employment, these migratory responses largely consist of rural-to-urban flows. Overall, increases in robotization explain roughly one-fourth of rural-to-urban net migration between 2003 and 2016, which is primarily driven by young and medium/low-skilled individuals. Technology-driven labor demand shocks, thus, make an important contribution to rural decline, deepening the cleavage between advantaged and disadvantaged regions.

机器人化内部迁移农村衰落城乡净迁移