Quantitative assessment of crises via central moments
提出一种通用方法，利用中心矩量化社会技术系统对危机的响应，揭示不同系统在危机中的细微差异，并提取时间尺度来衡量系统韧性。以德国机场在COVID-19疫情期间航班骤降的数据为例验证。
We provide a widely applicable method to quantitatively assess the response of socio-technical systems to crises. The method generalizes the interpretability of a series of moments in terms of probability distributions to the breakdown and recovery phases of crises. These moments allow to unveil subtle differences in the reactions of distinct systems in view of a crisis, and, in part, serve as a measure of these systems’ resilience. Thereby, the moments extend existing measures of resilience by a well-defined procedure regarding the time domain that extracts relevant time scales of the systems’ reaction to a given crisis during breakdown and recovery. The method is illustrated by real-world data of German airports which experienced a dramatic drop in flight departures as a consequence of travel restrictions imposed in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. • Quantitative assessment of crises based on few and natural conditions on the underlying data. • Resolution of subtle differences regarding distinct systems’ reaction to the same crisis. • Extraction of relevant scales from crisis data.