Betting on momentum in contests
利用一家大型博彩公司提供的逐秒足球博彩市场数据，研究了平局进球这一重大新闻发生后，博彩者行为的变化，发现成交量偏向进球方但价格不受影响，为评估博彩市场效率提供了证据。
Abstract With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state‐contingent claims by a major bookmaker, second‐by‐second in‐play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a bettor: equalizing goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcomes increases and is substantially biased toward the equalizing team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. These findings illustrate the value of integrating high‐frequency price and quantity data to evaluate the efficiency and profitability of betting markets.