美国的气候与移民

Climate and migration in the United States

Journal of Public Economics · 2025
被引 2
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

利用人口普查和税务申报的长期数据,研究发现美国温暖气温导致净人口迁出,而凉爽气温则无此效应;移民是对高温的中期反应,且舒适度价值是重要机制。

Abstract

We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.

气候迁移美国人口迁移气温影响宜居性机制