Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany
研究发现右翼恐怖袭击显著增加了德国右翼民粹政党AfD的得票率，通过对比成功与未遂袭击的随机差异，并利用个人面板数据证实了选民转向AfD并担忧移民，政党也相应调整竞选纲领。
We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system.