Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Chemical Inputs: Evidence from Pesticide Usage in China
基于1998-2016年中国面板数据，研究发现气温升高对农药使用存在非线性影响，南方地区在极端高温下效应更显著，且过去二十年升温导致农药使用量适度减少。
ABSTRACT Pesticides are commonly used for pest control to improve crop yield and quality. Global warming has been suggested to influence pest pressure and optimal pesticide utilization. This study systemically assesses the impacts of rising temperatures on pesticide usage based on novel panel data from China during 1998−2016. Estimation results show a nonlinear relationship between pesticide usage and temperature. This effect is notably more pronounced in southern China compared to the north, especially under extremely hot weather conditions. The overall influence of temperature on pesticide usage is further broken down into three components: pesticide usage intensity, crop mix, and total planted area. Owing to the limited potential for expanding cultivation in China, the intensity effect dominates the impacts of temperature on pesticide usage. Our findings suggest that the rising temperature over the past two decades has led to a moderate reduction in pesticide usage in China.