Studying Generational Risk in a Large‐Scale Life‐Cycle Model
构建了一个80期世代交叠模型，研究代际风险的大小以及社会保障如何影响该风险，发现代际风险较小且社会保障反而加剧风险，而夸大宏观波动则会增加风险。
Abstract We construct an 80‐period OLG model with aggregate shocks to study the size of generational risk and its mitigation via Social Security under different calibrations commonly considered in the literature. Our main findings are that generational risk is small or modest if one calibrates shocks to the volatility of macro aggregates and that Social Security exacerbates that risk. Calibrations that overstate the variability of macro aggregates generate substantially more generational risk, which Social Security can meaningfully mitigate. Finally, we find no support for the view that intergenerational policy can deliver Pareto improvements when safe interest rates run below the average growth rate. In our model, such policies entail welfare losses from crowding out that swamp oblique risk‐mitigation schemes.