Paths of progress: Forecasting global electric vehicle demand amidst demographic and economic growth
本研究利用公开数据，预测在不同经济增长和人口趋势下，2035年全球轻型车和电动汽车的销量，指出中国将主导市场，而电动汽车主要推动新出行增长，内燃机车在发展中国家仍将扩张。
This study estimates future motorization levels of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) under different economic growth scenarios and demographic trends, particularly the working-age population using publicly available data. By 2035, global LDV sales will range between 93–124 million, with China leading (27–35 million), followed by South Asia/Oceania (16–28 million), Middle East/Africa, and South America. If countries meet their electrification targets, global EV demand will reach 59–73 million. Internal Combustion Engine vehicle (ICEV) sales are projected to remain stable, with over 70 % of 2035 sales replacing retiring vehicles, while 80 % of EV sales contributing to new mobility growth. ICEV fleets will expand until the mid-2040 s, especially in emerging markets, where EVs add to total stock rather than replacing ICEVs. In Europe and US, ICEVs will be substituted more rapidly. The study underscores the need for improved ICEV fuel efficiency, electricity grid decarbonization, and strong EV policies to meet climate goals.