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基于扩散模型的合成金融时间序列生成

Generation of synthetic financial time series by diffusion models

Quantitative Finance · 2025
被引 4 · 同刊同年前 5%
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

提出使用扩散模型(DDPM)生成合成金融时间序列,通过小波变换将多变量时间序列转为图像,再逆变换回序列,能复现厚尾、波动聚集等典型统计特征。

Abstract

Despite its practical significance, generating realistic synthetic financial time series is challenging due to statistical properties known as stylized facts, such as fat tails, volatility clustering, and seasonality patterns. Various generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs) and variational autoencoders (VAEs), have been employed to address this challenge, although no model yet satisfies all the stylized facts. We alternatively propose utilizing diffusion models, specifically denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), to generate synthetic financial time series. This approach employs wavelet transformation to convert multiple time series (into images), such as stock prices, trading volumes, and spreads. Given these converted images, the model gains the ability to generate images that can be transformed back into realistic time series by inverse wavelet transformation. We demonstrate that our proposed approach satisfies stylized facts.

金融经济学计量经济学时间序列分析生成模型