Navigating uncertainties in green fuels: Proposing ship development strategies utilizing synergies
针对绿色燃料供应不确定下船舶新产品开发的投资决策，提出一种模拟学习效应与协同效应的方法，案例表明考虑协同效应能发现更有效的策略。
Industry faces large investment when a set-based approach is required to stay competitive in rapidly changing and uncertain markets. The maritime industry needs to invest in various ship new product development (NPD) projects to boost readiness under uncertainty of green fuels supply. Investment decisions in this context are naturally complex, with both learning effects from experience and synergy effects from commonalities at the subsystem level. The interplay of experience and synergy effects may lead to unexpected investment outcomes. A method is developed that assesses the combination of learning and synergy effects in an NPD simulation. A case study is presented based on shipbuilding for green fuel transition, with a commonality matrix based on ships’ fuel storage methods and fuel characteristics. The simulation results suggest effective strategies when including synergy effects, approaches otherwise likely unexplored and de-prioritized by portfolio stakeholders. Synergy behind set-based approach can be useful in uncertain market. • Ship development under uncertainties of green fuel supply. • Complexity of investment decisions from subsystem commonalities. • NPD simulation with commonality matrix to assess learning and synergy effects. • Case study of shipbuilding demonstrates more effective strategy reflecting synergies. • Synergy analysis can be useful for set-based approaches in uncertain markets.