Gender Equality Through Turnover: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Term Limit Reforms in Italy
利用意大利两次延长市长任期限制的改革，发现任期限制延长会减少女性当选市长的机会，若未改革女性市长比例会高8个百分点，且与基层性别配额配合效果更好。
We study whether term limits can accelerate women’s access to top political positions by analyzing two reforms in Italian local elections that extended mayoral term limits from two to three five-year terms. In a period marked by rapid growth in women’s political participation, the first reform affected municipalities with fewer than 3000 inhabitants in 2014, and the second those below 5000 in 2022. Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we find that longer term limits restrict opportunities for early-career politicians, with substantial effects on female representation: the share of female mayors would be 8 percentage points higher without the term limit extensions. The impact is larger in municipalities with more women in lower political positions and where gender quotas for council members are present, suggesting that entry-level quotas can be more effective when paired with policies promoting turnover in top positions. • Italy extended mayoral term limits below population thresholds in 2014 and 2022. • We use a difference-in-discontinuities design at the 3000 and 5000 cutoffs. • Without the reforms, the share of female mayors would be 8 p.p. higher. • The effect operates through incumbent retention, not gender preferences for tenure. • Term limits complement entry-level gender quotas in promoting female representation.