The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity, and Selection
利用瑞典行政数据研究长期失业的可预测性，发现个体间失业风险存在显著异质性，选择性效应解释了失业期内平均就业率下降的大部分，但对其周期性变化解释有限。
This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell but not over the business cycle.