HANK Beyond FIRE: Amplification, Forward Guidance, and Belief Shocks
在包含金融摩擦的异质性代理人新凯恩斯模型中引入噪声信息，发现其能抑制一般均衡放大效应、解决前瞻指引谜题，并拓宽政策规则确定区域，同时揭示暂时性“动物精神”信念冲击的持久影响。
ABSTRACT Monetary policy transmission in the benchmark New Keynesian (NK) model hinges on the Full Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) assumption, especially via indirect general equilibrium (GE) effects. This paper relaxes FIRE by introducing noisy information into a Heterogeneous‐Agent NK model with financial frictions. Noisy information dampens amplification by muting GE effects, aligning model dynamics with empirical evidence, and resolving the forward guidance puzzle. It also broadens the determinacy region for policy rules. Finally, I explore belief shocks, showing that transitory “animal spirits” can have persistent effects, offering new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of information frictions.