Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration: A Measurement Perspective
提出一种新的全球价值链测度方法，发现传统指标低估了服务与上游制造业的GVC活动，并高估了早期贸易自由化的风险；实证表明GVC参与既带来经济暴露也提供稳定作用。
Abstract This paper introduces a new approach to measuring global value chains (GVC), crucial for informed policymaking. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two sided) covering trade and production data. We find that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications overestimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.