Casus Belli
提出战争是双方为监督彼此减少军事过度投资而采取的政治手段，预测了专业化程度与平民死亡的关系及三方战争的罕见性。
ABSTRACT This article proposes that wars are fought to bring about and monitor mutual reductions of overinvestment in broadly defined military preparedness. If two potential combatants are overinvested in military preparedness, it is in their individual interest to scale down in order to use their resources in politically more desirable ways. However, unilateral disarmament exposes one to the risk of extortion by the not‐yet‐disarmed side. Wars can therefore be a politically desirable way of monitoring the other side's disarmament. This hypothesis predicts fewer civilian deaths from war the more specialized the combatants are, the exceeding rarity of three‐way wars, and also offers a number of additional implications.