Epistemic uncertainty in megaprojects
通过分析两个上游石油大型项目的早期失败，提出Unlock框架，帮助开发者在项目初期逐步解锁成功所需信息，减少认知不确定性。
How can complexity theory help petroleum-producing companies, and others, reduce epistemic uncertainty when planning major new projects? To answer that question, we explored the early developmental failures of two megaprojects in what’s known as the ‘upstream petroleum sector’, a phase that encompasses both exploration and production activities. Based on interviews and a study of archival data, this article proposes a way that would have minimised the odds of such failure. Underpinning this process is our framework we call Unlock, a middle-range theory that can help developers navigate the crucial early stages of projects to unlock, step by step, the information needed for a successful outcome. Every petroleum-production project requires developers to (1) generate and revise strategies, (2) self-regulate to elevate concepts, and (3) establish decisive actions. We further find that front-end project development calls for polyvocality—the inclusion of multiple perspectives—to enrich evolving project concepts with diverse insights.