The multiple effects of financial squeeze: A complex adaptive system modelling with empirical data
利用2734家半导体公司的交易数据构建供应链网络，通过智能体模型模拟财务挤压引发的金融与物流风险传播，揭示了涟漪、相关、双重和阈值等效应，为企业和政策制定者提供应对策略。
Under the current turbulent international competition situation, companies are more inclined to adopt financial squeeze strategies to increase short-term profits. In order to uncover the multiple effects of financial squeeze, we first propose a transaction reconstruction algorithm to build an empirical data-based integrated supply chain network (ED-ISCN) with 2734 semiconductor industry companies by combining the buyer-supplier relationship data with financial statements. According to the relationship characteristics, we identify four types of company in the ED-ISCN based on supplier and consumer concentrations, including hub-like, pocket-like, fork-like and capillary-like companies. Second, to capture the multi-level and multi-faceted impacts of both financial and the derived logistics risk on the ED-ISCN, we develop an agent-based model to simulate the interactive operational processes, including order placement, delivery and payment. Finally, we comprehensively simulate and visualise the complex propagation processes of joint risks. The results show that the impact of financial squeezes not only has the obvious ripple effect, but also exhibits the correlation, duality, and threshold effects. Furthermore, we identify the differentiated responses of various companies and the specific propagation patterns of financial and logistics risks. In addition, this paper provides more nuanced implications to help companies and policymakers better deal with financial squeezes.