Shared exposures or management fashions? Antecedents of convergence in the insurance and banking industries
基于2006-2018年10-K报告的风险披露文本，研究保险与银行业决策者关注点的趋同现象，发现管理时尚是跨行业趋同的主要驱动因素，对预测风险传染有启示。
Abstract We study convergence in the attention of decision‐makers across the insurance and banking industries. Our analysis is based on textual risk disclosures (10‐K reports, 2006–2018), providing a snapshot of corporate priorities and contexts. We theoretically link convergence with decision‐making contexts via the Attention‐Based View. Leveraging strategic management theory, we identify antecedents of convergence in attention and, therefore, potentially, risk contagion. These include common trends in the macro‐environment, substitution threats, and management fashions. We combine this theoretical framework with machine learning tools to create quantitative measures of convergence in attention and its antecedents. We find that the proposed measure of convergence is predictive of inter‐ and intra‐industry stock correlations. Finally, based on regression and sensitivity analyses, we identify the relative importance of different antecedents, showing that shared risk management fashions largely drive Inter‐industry convergence in attention. This highlights challenges when interpreting regulatory text data in the context of predicting contagion risk.