Expectations and Adaptation to Environmental Threats
在巴基斯坦拉合尔进行的两项随机干预实验表明，预测培训和提供空气污染预报都能减少人们的预测误差，并促使他们采取更多防护措施，如购买口罩和减少户外活动。
Abstract Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult to form accurate expectations, limiting responses to uncertain environmental threats like air pollution. We study two cross-randomised interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: (i) general training in forecasting and (ii) provision of air pollution forecasts. Both reduced the subjects’ own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast recipients were willing to pay 41% of their total mobile phone costs for continued access, consistent with welfare gains from adaptation.