Local-Thinking Bias
研究发现卖方分析师在预测时会过度关注自己覆盖组合的新闻，忽视经济关联企业的信息，这种偏差导致市场出现可预测的收益反转，据此构建的交易策略能获得显著超额收益。
ABSTRACT Local-thinking bias, wherein agents overweight information that comes readily to mind, is a prominent finding in cognitive psychology. In this study, we investigate local-thinking bias in the context of sell-side analysts and measure each analyst’s “local” information as news stemming from their individual coverage portfolio. Tests examining multiple analysts forecasting on the same focal firm at the same time find that individual analysts overweight idiosyncratic local news and underweight news from economically linked firms that are not in their coverage portfolios. Market prices track the analyst bias from local news, leading to predictable and economically significant return reversal patterns in the future. A trading strategy that adjusts for analysts’ biases earns meaningful abnormal returns. We discuss the implications of these findings for three literatures: (1) cognitive psychology, (2) analyst behavior, and (3) behavioral asset pricing. JEL Classifications: D91; G14; G17; G41; M41; M49.