Assessing the local cost of urban climate resilience: An analysis of the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience (FiDi) Master Plan
本研究评估纽约金融区和海港气候韧性总体规划的经济、环境和财政影响，使用多区域投入产出模型和S曲线框架模拟投资支出，发现该计划可能带来显著净经济效益，但特定阶段有集中环境影响。
Cities worldwide face increasing challenges in adapting to the devastating effects of severe weather events, including flooding, hurricanes, and rising temperatures. New York City, severely impacted by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, has developed the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience Master Plan (FiDi) as part of its effort to enhance climate resilience in Lower Manhattan. This study evaluates the local economic, environmental, and fiscal impacts of implementing this plan, which represents a US$5 to US$7 billion investment over 10 to 15 years. Using a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) modeling approach, we capture the economic interactions between Lower Manhattan and other New York City boroughs, as well as spillover effects across New York State. We address the substantial uncertainties surrounding the plan’s execution by integrating the S-curve framework to simulate financial disbursement patterns over time. This framework allows for periodic cost–benefit analysis. Our results indicate that the FiDi plan might generate significant net economic benefits, though concentrated environmental impacts occur during specific implementation phases. Tax revenue effects reveal opportunities for enhanced coordination among federal, state, and local governments to support urban resilience initiatives. This research contributes to the literature by demonstrating the utility of combining MRIO modeling with the S-curve framework to address financial uncertainties and assess large-scale infrastructure projects before their implementation. It also offers a replicable framework for ex-ante simulation of the economic and environmental trade-offs of climate resilience projects in cities globally.