Nationalism and War in the 21st‐Century Europe
本文用比较历史社会学分析欧洲民族主义与组织暴力的长期轨迹，指出两者在近代持续上升而非衰落，并解释21世纪欧洲国家间战争回归的原因。
Since the end of WWII, many analysts were adamant that Europe is a continent of peace and geopolitical stability. The influential authors were arguing that warfare is experiencing a historical decline and that many forms of organised violence belong to the dustbin of European history. The leading scholars of organised violence tended to focus on civil wars, revolutions and insurgencies on other continents. The dominant view was that Europe is unlikely to face a major interstate war. A very similar stance was expressed in relation to nationalism. For many scholars, this ideology has reached its peak in the 19th century; since then, its influence has been on the wane. In this context, much of the contemporary sociological scholarship has focused on the significance of globalisation, individualism, cosmopolitanism and consumerism, all of which were understood to be more relevant for 21st-century Europe than nationalism. Nevertheless, such ahistorical and present-centric interpretations fly in the face of a much more complex European historical record. To better understand the social dynamics of war and nationalism and their historical trajectories, it is crucial to explore these two phenomena in a longue durée mode. In this article, I aim to show that the return of inter-state warfare in Europe, together with the greater visibility of nationalism, can be explained using the analytical tools of comparative historical sociology. By zooming in on the long-term coercive-organisational, ideological and micro-interactional processes of nationalist grounding, one can trace the relatively continuous rise of nationalism in Europe. Similarly, by analysing the key structural and societal historical conditions in Europe, it is possible to see that organised violence has not experienced a decline but has, in fact, increased in modernity. The first part of the article provides a brief analysis of European nationalisms over the last three centuries. I aim to show that rather than appearing as deus ex machina in the 21st century, this phenomenon has been gradually developing, expanding and penetrating different areas of social life. In the second part of the article, I briefly explore the transformation of organised violence in Europe. I look at the centrality of warfare in European history and point to the continuous significance of force in the social development of this continent. The last section brings the two phenomena together and indicates under which conditions nationalism becomes virulent. In the conventional understanding, nationalism is often perceived to be a phenomenon that reached its peak in the late 19th century. The traditional historiography regularly depicts this period as the ‘springtime of nations’ and associates nationalism mostly with the anti-imperial projects and the movements of national unification. Thus, the collapse of the Ottoman, Habsburg and Romanov empires is often attributed to the rising of national consciousness amongst the ‘small peoples’ of Europe that were determined to destroy the imperial ‘prison houses of nations’ and establish their own independent and sovereign nation-states (Hroch, 2015; Kumar, 2017). Similarly, the unification of Germany and Italy is typically described as ‘belated’ and is understood to be the pinnacle in the European nation-formation processes. Although many analysts recognise that nationalism played an important role in the two world wars, the causes of these violent conflicts are typically attributed to other factors including the changing power dynamics, the crisis of capitalism and class politics, geopolitical transformations or the motivations of specific rulers. In the post-WWII Europe, nationalism has generally been relegated to the margins and perceived to be a phenomenon associated with the separatist movements based at the fringes of the European continent – the Basque country, Catalonia, Northern Ireland, Flanders or the Balkans. With the intensification of economic globalisation from the 1990s until 2010s, nationalism was generally perceived as a relic from the bygone age. The leading social theorists including Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens and Zygmunt Bauman have proclaimed its inevitable death. For Giddens (2013, p. 65), ‘The development of globalised social relations probably serves to diminish some aspects of nationalist feeling’ … ‘in circumstances of accelerated globalisation, the nation-state has become “too small for the big problems of life, and too big for the small problems of life”’. Similarly, Beck (2006) was adamant that globalisation fosters individualism where ‘the nation-state project’ is being replaced with the ‘cosmopolitan project’. In Bauman's (2002, p. 84) view, consumerism has killed all forms of collective attachments, and as such, ‘nation-building coupled with patriotic mobilisation has ceased to be a principal instrument of social integration’. Thus, the dominant views concur on perceiving nationalism as a phenomenon that has reached its zenith in the late 19th century and has ever since been experiencing a continuous decline. In this context, the proliferation of nativist, populist, anti-immigrant, protectionist and ethnicist movements and parties, many of which have become influential political actors across the European continent, has been a major surprise for many scholars.1 Even the well-established political parties, social movements, religious institutions and civil society groups have embraced the strong nationalist rhetoric and have started advocating ‘preservation of our national identity’ and exclusionary policies against the non-nationals. This ideological shift has often been labelled as an unexpected return or resurgence of ‘new nationalism’. The commentators have typically attempted to explain this ‘reappearance’ of nationalism in economic or cultural terms. For some, ‘new nationalism’ was a direct consequence of deepening socio-economic inequalities. Thus, Snyder (2019) interprets the ‘sudden rise of nationalism’ as a by-product of neo-liberal policies where large sectors of the labour force have become the victims of globalisation. As such, they tend to scapegoat the immigrants for their economic losses. They also vote for the parties with the nativist and far right programmes hoping that these parties will protect their economic interests. In contrast, the culturalist explanations have centred on the impact of value transformations on social and political life. Hence, Norris and Inglehart (2019) identify the cultural backlash as the defining feature of ‘new nationalism’ and populism. They focus on the polarisation between the social liberals and social conservatives and argue that voting for the populist parties is a product of deep cultural cleavages. Nevertheless, as I have argued before, this is an ahistorical, present-centric and short-sighted view of a phenomenon that has a long, complex and for the most part an upward historical trajectory (Malešević, 2025, 2019, 2013, 2006). To understand has been it is crucial to a longue durée and the development of nationalism in Europe over centuries. than nationalist ideology as that has reached its peak in 19th century, it is crucial to that at that nationalism was a ideological that an impact on a very small section of European The Europe was a world by empires and where the imperial politics, and nationalist By century, nationalism was to the of cultural and with a view of more influence the political by the the of the of European were by of political be to the religious of of rather than to the of As (2013, and it century for nationalism to become a ideological that gradually its historical The two world have played a role in Europe from a continent by the imperial projects and of to the social where the major political were by the will of The war was the ideological of many national small of in national and be to for and The of the the to the and the for different groups that many political and economic or social The to the this ideological shift – with an of the the of As p. the war become the of the as as these are of or they are with national The an more role in and in the that the of was for the very of a specific This war also more class and The that the war the and that the mobilisation for war labour for has to the of national of this war was the that has been the of the post-WWII European The of the to social for the large sectors of its was a direct consequence of the of war. was warfare with and that the of the the of a strong and has also the of national for many The two world have also the of most in Europe, with the of to in their and dominant and cultural In this context, many policies of cultural and national Nevertheless, the key societal for the proliferation of nationalism in the and 21st-century Europe were the structural transformations across the and than experiencing nationalism has been gradually penetrating of economic and cultural life. For one the power of the a direct impact on the development of nationalism. The relatively continuous rise of the and the of power the to its as it was to and under its 2013, With the development of and the of nation-states were to their will and the under their By the on and the nation-states have that were the ideology of nationalism (Malešević, 2019, The of European or power by the nationalist such as the of the the cultural the will of its or the national of their The period from to is often perceived the of the with the on the ideological between and capitalism on the one and with on the In the conventional was not much nationalism in the second of the century, as this was perceived as a ideological between and the that national Nevertheless, it is this period of that conditions for the development and of nationalism across European The that I the of nationalism has in the post-WWII Europe (Malešević, 2025, the deep ideological polarisation on the continent, of the were experiencing a very similar of nationalist of the social In the century, the of the European were not the national and identify more in religious and than national terms. As and many in Europe in the late 19th and century to not in national but in or religious terms. the nationalist policies of the and the many of the were by where and from the dominant of and other p. has the of European immigrants to the and has that in most the immigrants in of or rather than specific In and Europe, the of the was and a small of have regularly the For in the most including and a in many of Europe, the were to As and is nationalism the and the national The war period was a of development and that has the European continent. As the very different political and social in the and of Europe, the continent has experienced this of socio-economic social and The direct consequence of this societal was also the of national across the continent. The and ideological of nationalism was in part the of and the and the until the late all European have experienced development and in these This of civil and being across the continent, with the proliferation of and and with the of and being For from the late to the most European have a that the by – from as as in to in and and p. A very similar has also Europe with the of and its to or In the period from to the of and has increased by for many and 2017). This and ideological was and to the of the and often of their Even the and of the European has not this As in the last the of national and in has been very for all European and in most the point to the relatively continuous rise of national across Europe. 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The scholars of and nationalism have on many aspects of are with from the of the to to with and with national to national at and national at the have been in the of their nationalist In this nationalist and have the and of for of Thus, nationalism is not a phenomenon that has been in decline since 19th century. the all point that nationalism has been on the rise for the centuries. ideological and micro-interactional has in the second of the century and 21st century. have been in the last or is not a or of a relic from the bygone but a more of the phenomenon that has been and expanding for more than two centuries. than being a nationalism is the sociological in (Malešević, The unexpected rise of nationalism is not a for historical as this phenomenon an is the has nationalism become In under which conditions nationalism become with To understand and nationalism becomes with it is important to briefly trace the trajectory of organised violence in Europe. is rather that as with nationalism the dominant views on the historical of violence are by the was that the European continent was the of peace where warfare and other forms of violence have mostly been for influential and such as Ulrich Beck and have all been adamant that the have their violent For Beck p. the of war has become and it impact on and In view, in a world that is by that ‘the of and ‘the decline of the of For much of contemporary warfare is by civil violent conflicts and ‘new that in the Europe and the and other forms of organised For the of the of the post-WWII political has been associated with and The most influential on the long-term of violence were its and amongst have all argued that the world as a and the European continent in have been experiencing the continuous decline of violence and the of has economic the rise of and the to war as being the key of In view, these have conditions for the of major war in Europe. For the long-term decline of violence is a product of the the of and the In and understanding, the violence of is by capitalism and the also the transformation of the of and its and the of They all that the of the and associated with the the long-term decline of all forms of violence in Europe and Nevertheless, this and of continuous and in the face of a much and violent historical and 2017). and historical have that being the continent, Europe has experienced much more warfare than other continents. With a of and the European continent has been at war. As argued by and the of war that from the and to the and of the first has reached its peak in the and Europe They show that the European continent has experienced violent conflicts that have in the of in the period development in large and it was the for warfare and the intensification of that have the development of the the and the of the well-established of and the The European were and have often in large and the of different but they have also the development of and civil As these have the of the European continent by the of from in to or nation-states in the of the century. The consequence of these was the of the of and the proliferation of different civil society with the of and to these wars, the to with their Thus, in for their in war or of the were to the political and economic of their The pinnacle of violence in Europe was the of the century. were two world by the and the but also these two violent conflicts have also the European political and economic The direct consequence of these two most in history was the shift from the world of empires and to the continent of the of European were by the the their The have all become where the In many these two were the of a transformation as the nation-state of the and nationalism was as the principal of political (Malešević, 2019, The two world also a impact on the socio-economic with the the of to many social the development of the the and the of for As it was that the much of its economic power as the across the continent the socio-economic of many European The of the and the of in the and on the of Europe have also a of and to such in the The of European that the European was to between the European is that the has been very in and violent conflicts on its of its such as and to with the violent in its Northern Ireland, the Basque but these conflicts it is also important to that this post-WWII geopolitical coupled with economic and in the of war and the continuous for the is in this period that most and the most were and the European continent. The continuous between and the has the European continent more than it has ever The of the and and the development of the have Europe the of the world war. The second of the century was also a crucial period for the development and of nationalist its ideological of the war rhetoric was in the nationalist The war were regularly in the of and and of the ideological projects that have been in the and the of the European continent, on the all European were in the ideological and micro-interactional of nationalism (Malešević, 2019, 2013, 2006). As the of and in Europe much to with the of and much more with the of to their national and In this the war mobilisation together with the of has to the proliferation of nationalism across European The collapse of the together with the of the across Europe and a for long-term on the continent. The period and of The of many European have as with the of the was direct to European the 1990s have also mostly political across the of the continent, which have in a of This the of the war civil war and the war where the European were in the of these have development and of most of which Even these have the across the strong and that organised violence and nationalism will diminish in 21st-century Europe, this has not the this century has violent including the war and many violent in the and the Nevertheless, the violent has started with the of In on the of and have in this started a major and war that two in Europe. 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For one many European have of the The of have the of – Germany and In the have and to and have and other including the on the For by 2025, the has in different forms of to with Germany the and For the changing geopolitical dynamics have the of many European to and their large European including and the have their and have also for the of their In increased to it the This was an rise since In the a and the is to this with of over A similar was in where by in to of The has also increased and it has from in to in This on the in Europe indicates that organised violence is not on the wane. As I have argued before, the of together with the ideological the contemporary social and the of all for the of organised violence (Malešević, The increased in Europe and the of the world has to the of European The rise of coercive-organisational, and micro-interactional not to but these structural In this context, the European continent is not an as warfare has been an part of its social is not an violent In fact, most forms of nationalist are and they can from the cultural focused on specific and to the political movements the of specific or to the economic with to the groups centred on between the from the As the scholars of nationalism have in most nationalism a of and for The of nationalist is better the structural and in the and than by on the such as the and 2013, p. is most it is and in the of life. This can be in many from the and in to the of collective in the to the in national of to of national and national to the of to the of to national or has become such a and ideology and social it in and nationalism was by a and it not and many areas of (Malešević, 2025, of this is to that nationalism is to the as nationalism is a and social it can with very different political including that and on Hence, the nationalist have inter-state and civil wars, and policies amongst many In the contemporary most have been by specific nationalist and The of rhetoric in warfare can be across the political and the For the a war with over the in the parties, many civil society and the were their and for the war (Malešević, Similarly, the the was in the and in the and of In of nationalist rhetoric becomes more and more not they and strong nationalist is in contemporary Since nationalism is a social force that has been on the rise for the two its impact and are in of In the 21st-century Europe, major including the and economic the and and the has the of nationalism In all of these the first of across Europe was to the of their own The policies of and were replaced with own over The protectionist economic policies and has also against the relatively The crisis also the of European with the on The of and for own the nation-states were to their and the for all Nevertheless, the war in has to be the most of nationalisms in Europe. this has the of – the and the the was a society with and of this has in the last The war a impact on the complex and national to the and national Hence, at the of this century many a of or as all identify as in and in this has to and the of national has also increased in of that they are very or rather of being in this has to of The of this war has also the of nationalism. the war nationalism was more and has of including the to ‘the of the dominant of the contemporary nationalism from this the war has for some interpretations of nationalism that the groups from the and including the of and under for for and was in the of and other The contemporary nationalism is by between the and and and The war has also the key of nationalism. The has been in nationalist terms. some to the geopolitical from the and the of to the in many of has the nationalist as For in the that the described the war in the ‘the of this is to protect for have been and by the … to this will to and as as to against including against of the Hence, the rhetoric is focused on the of our is that the nationalism the imperial with the and some Nevertheless, all these are the nationalist The war in has also it very that nationalism is a ideological force that can political and Thus, nationalism is a ideological that can of to or the of other ideological be of such a of societal and the nationalist rhetoric has been by the to its as as to a of in Thus, nationalist and can be to and Since nationalist many aspects of life, it becomes and in of war. This not that nationalism is violent and it is under specific geopolitical conditions that nationalism can with war. The key is that since the structural conditions for nationalism and organised violence have been in they the can be Nevertheless, as most nationalisms are not violent but are and and since organised violence can under the violent nationalist is not In the European continent has an that other of the world The of the European which was to between its can be to than on national and expanding the of the European is in a relatively where it can its and other to a much power than of its Hence, of of and the of national it is more to and a and European In this the not be on but also the of that the mobilisation on the national is to the development and proliferation of the of and is to of European By this Europe can and also the transformation of Since the end of WWII, the European continent has generally been associated with an of political economic social and peace the economic and political including the of and the movements together with the socio-economic have all the of Europe. The war in has also the end of European peace and the return of Since many scholars to these it is important to the role nationalism and organised violence have played in European history. In this article, I have to show that using the longue durée of comparative historical can understand the European trajectory of war and nationalism. to the that organised violence and nationalism the European I their continuous in late modernity. To understand and the social and in Europe, it is to a long-term that these historical