Quantifying the impact of fleet turnover on electric vehicle uptake in Europe
研究提出模块化方法预测欧盟乘用车队未来构成，发现车辆寿命延长阻碍电动化，若保持2021年存活率，2050年电动汽车占比可达85%。
To achieve the EU’s decarbonization targets of the passenger car fleet by 2050, additional measures are required that go beyond the current policy. This paper presents a modular approach to project the future composition of the EU’s passenger car fleet, focusing on battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The methodology combines a bottom-up transportation model to estimate new BEV registrations with a country-specific empirical model based on survival rates to estimate the future BEV fleet composition. Findings show a significant increase in vehicle lifespan across the EU since 2008, posing a barrier to rapid fleet electrification. Assuming constant 2021 survival rates until 2050, the European BEV stock share is projected to reach 85% by 2050. Restoring turnover rates to 2008 levels could increase this share to 92%, while continued increases in vehicle life could lower it to 78%. Significantly different levels of passenger car fleet electrification across EU Member States are observed.