Cash out or carry on: When bank runs build resilience
将流动性风险纳入首次通过时间偿付模型,测量银行违约的联合概率,发现流动性风险与偿付风险相互作用在合理条件下可降低整体违约可能性,对信贷供给有重要意义。
We integrate liquidity risk into a first passage time solvency model to measure the joint probability of bank default. Counterintuitively, we find that the interaction between liquidity and solvency risks can, under plausible conditions, lower the overall likelihood of default. This finding is significant to the supply of credit to the real economy, as it reduces the pressure on banks to scale back risk-taking by tightening lending conditions after negative liquidity shocks. As far as we know, our combined liquidity-solvency model is the first to demonstrate this stabilizing effect.