The Aftermath of Credit Booms: Evidence from Credit Ceiling Removals
研究1980年代前多国实施的信贷上限取消后，银行信贷、住宅投资、房价和银行股价先升后降，并引发衰退和银行危机，表明信贷供给冲击可独立引发经济繁荣-萧条周期。
Abstract We study removals of “credit ceilings,” quantitative limits on bank credit supply imposed by many countries until the 1980s. Exploiting differences in loan types affected, we find that these removals predict increases in bank credit, residential investment, house prices, and bank stock prices, followed by reversals, recessions, and banking crises. These effects are separate from those of other financial deregulations. Overall, our results suggest that credit supply shocks do not simply amplify existing fragilities but can initiate economic boom-and-bust cycles on their own.