Modelling structural change in global macroeconomic models
研究生产率增长如何驱动长期结构变化，通过多区域多部门一般均衡模型模拟人口变化、技术追赶和自动化三种情景，揭示部门和国家间不对称生产率增长对全球经济结构的影响。
Abstract The global economy has experienced significant structural change over the past several decades and is expected to continue evolving in the future, driven by both supply- and demand-side forces. This paper focuses on the supply side, illustrating how productivity growth drives long-term structural change. We examine three scenarios: demographic change in the baseline, technological catch-up of developing countries toward the global productivity frontier, and global productivity growth in manufacturing driven by automation technology. We simulate the scenarios in a multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model (G-Cubed). The model captures not only the direct channel of different productivity growth across sectors, but also the indirect channels through sectoral and international linkages. The analysis highlights how asymmetric productivity growth across sectors and countries can reshape global economic structure over time, with important implications for economic growth, international trade, and the distribution of global economic powers.