Geoeconomic fragmentation and the role of non-aligned countries
通过覆盖141个国家和65个经济部门的量化贸易模型，模拟全球贸易碎片化情景，发现不结盟国家从中立地位获益最多（福利提升最高0.7%），但若加入任一贸易集团则转为损失，且世界福利损失加剧。
We analyze how non-aligned countries affect welfare outcomes in scenarios of global trade fragmentation. Using a quantitative trade model covering 141 countries and 65 economic sectors, we simulate different scenarios of geoeconomic fragmentation. We find that major non-aligned countries benefit from their neutral position, with welfare gains of up to 0.7 percent that vary significantly across sectors. These gains turn into significant losses if they join either the Western or Eastern trade bloc. Moreover, world welfare losses increase from -1.9 percent under incomplete fragmentation to -2.7 percent when non-aligned countries join the West and to -3.7 percent when they join the East. Our results highlight the strategic importance of non-aligned countries in mitigating the negative effects of global trade fragmentation.