Measuring Real‐Time Economic Condition With Economic Narratives
通过分析一百万篇华尔街日报文章的经济叙事，构建了一个每日经济状况指数，能实时捕捉经济波动，有助于预测市场波动和利率，对政策制定和投资决策有实际价值。
ABSTRACT To track real economic activity in a timely manner, we construct a Narrative Daily Economic Condition Index. The economic narratives from the full text content of one million Wall Street Journal articles are decomposed into interpretable topic time series. The resulting indicator captures the business cycle and the movement of economic output measures well. The empirical applications show that the resulting indicator captures real‐time economic fluctuations and contributes to predicting market volatility and interest rates, which can significantly benefit real‐time policy making and investment decisions. Our results highlight the informativeness and timeliness of economic news for assessing the state of the economy.