Revisiting central bank credibility: Results from a new survey
基于2024年对319位央行和货币经济学专家的调查，研究了央行可信度的重要性、影响因素及非常规货币政策对其的冲击，发现从业者比学者更看重可信度，独立性和透明度是关键。
Literature on economists’ perceptions of central bank credibility is limited, with Alan Blinder’s work remaining the seminal piece. In this study, we examine how views on various aspects of central bank credibility have evolved over the past two decades, since Blinder’s first survey on this topic. We present the results of the survey conducted in March and April 2024 among 319 experts in the fields of central banking and monetary economics. The questionnaire includes items from the original survey, as well as several new ones, particularly those related to the impact of unconventional monetary policy on credibility, credibility measurement, and central bank objectives. The results indicate that economists still perceive central bank credibility as considerably important for different aspects of central bank activities. In the study, respondents who were central bank practitioners considered credibility more important for monetary policymaking than did academics. Independence, a history of honesty, and transparency were identified as the most important attributes of central bank credibility, while unconventional monetary policies and large fiscal expansions were not considered threats to credibility. These results offer important implications for central banks aiming to formulate relevant policy guidelines.