Political and economic protests in authoritarian regimes
研究威权体制下抗议诉求类型如何影响统治者选择让步或镇压,发现低收入群体参与经济抗议更易获让步,高收入群体参与政治抗议更易遭镇压。
Abstract Why do some protests succeed at obtaining accommodation but other protests are repressed? The content of demands varies widely across protest events although prior research has not accounted for how the demands of protest movements influence outcomes. We construct a theoretical model to study how different types of protest demands impact whether a dictator accommodates or represses. The model explains that income levels of protesters influence the content of their demands, which in turn affect protest mobilization and effectiveness. Lower income classes join economic protests that dictators more often accommodate, but higher income classes join political protests that dictators tend to repress. The model also shows that dictators may be unable to deter limited protests from becoming mass mobilization events, even when there is no uncertainty in the strategic environment. We discuss how the argument explains patterns of protest and repression with illustrative cases across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.