Evaluating Selection Bias in Early-Stage Investment Returns
利用挪威新创企业的全面行政数据，比较获得风险投资的企业与未获得但事前相似的企业，发现风险投资回报存在显著向上偏差，而多轮外部股权投资的溢价较小且出现较晚。
Abstract This article investigates sample selection bias in early-stage investment. We use comprehensive administrative data on the universe of new firm starts in Norway, allowing us to compare venture-backed firms with ex ante similar firms that do not receive venture funding. The valuation premium for venture backing is sizeable at firm birth and doubles over the first 5 years, implying a substantial upward bias in venture capital (VC) returns relative to comparable firms. In contrast, the premium for firms receiving multiple rounds of outside equity emerges only after the first year and remains significantly smaller than the VC premium throughout the firm life cycle.