Nowcasting Firms’ Operating Activities from Satellite Data on Thermal Infrared Radiation
利用卫星热红外辐射数据直接、实时衡量企业运营活动，发现该指标能显著预测企业销售增长、成本、投资、就业和利润，并预测未来股票收益，尤其对信息不透明的企业有效。
Abstract Practical real-world activities consume energy and emit thermal infrared radiation (TIR). Leveraging this physical fact, we develop a direct, real-time measure of firms’ operating activity using satellite data. Tracking 28,236 factories of Chinese listed firms, we find TIR declines significantly following operational shocks and strongly forecasts subsequent sales growth, costs, investment, employment, and profits. TIR also predicts future stock returns, especially among opaque firms and those with limited investor access, yet sophisticated investors largely ignore this information. Our findings highlight TIR as a distinctive, under-exploited indicator of corporate fundamentals.