The Persistence of Miscalibration
分析了CFO对S&P 500回报的超过28,400次预测，发现错误校准（预测置信区间过窄）不会随任务重复或过去表现而改善，而是一种持久的个人特质，与出生队列和股市熟悉度有关。
Abstract We analyze a panel of over 28,400 S&P 500 return forecasts by CFOs to examine whether the extent of CFOs’ miscalibration—providing forecast confidence intervals that are too narrow—decreases over time. We find no improvement with task repetition nor evidence of learning, that is, no improvement in response to past performance. Across CFOs, miscalibration appears to be a persistent personal trait. We find some evidence that the degree of miscalibration is related to birth cohort and stock market familiarity.