Modelling for insight: Does oil price uncertainty have directional predictability for travel and leisure firms?
研究用隐含油价波动率指数（OVX）衡量油价不确定性，发现其对全球旅游休闲公司股票收益有方向性预测力，尤其在熊市时更强，且预测效果因地区和时间跨度而异。
This study investigates how uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices affects the stock returns of travel and leisure (T&L) companies. Through a comprehensive analysis, we address three key questions: (a) Does oil price uncertainty predict T&L stock returns directionally? (b) How does varying oil uncertainty affect T&L returns under different market conditions? (c) Is this association consistent across continents? Using the implied oil volatility index (OVX) as a proxy for oil price uncertainty and cross-quantilogram modelling, our study reveals significant impacts of OVX on T&L stock returns, with varying predictability across continents. We find that stock returns are more vulnerable mainly during bearish market conditions, with predictability strength varying over time horizons. Our findings highlight the importance for T&L firms to mitigate oil risk exposure, potentially leveraging emerging technologies like electric vehicles. This study provides insights into the interplay between oil uncertainty and T&L stock returns, with implications for industry practitioners, investors, and policymakers aiming to foster sustainable tourism development amidst oil market volatility due to geopolitics. • We examine the impact of OVX on T&L sector stock returns. • We use cross-quantilogram to capture and quantile-varying dependencies. • We find that the predictive impact is stronger during bearish regimes across global regions. • The regional variation reflects differences in energy exposure and tourism demand patterns. • Results highlight dynamic and asymmetric oil risk in the T&L industry.