Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
利用乌干达全国农业推广项目的随机实施，研究小农户采纳经济油料作物的决策，发现技术和市场信息显著提高农民预期，使油料作物采纳率平均增加15%。
Abstract This paper uses the randomized rollout of a national agricultural extension program in Uganda to study subsistence smallholders' decisions to adopt cash oilseed crops and shift to commercial farming. By eliciting yield and price expectations, we examine how beliefs evolve after the intervention and influence adoption decisions. Our findings indicate that technical and market information significantly raises farmers' expectations, leading to an average 15% increase in oilseed adoption. Results highlight the role of information in shaping beliefs and behavior, and suggest that addressing knowledge gaps and belief misperceptions about crop profitability is crucial for improving technology adoption and agricultural transformation.