Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks Across U.S. States
研究了美国各州天气灾害对本地经济活动的短期影响，以及通过州际经济联系产生的跨境溢出效应，发现考虑经济联系能捕捉到比单纯空间邻近更强的溢出，强调地理异质性和供给侧传导机制的重要性。
ABSTRACT We estimate the short‐run effects of weather‐related disasters on local economic activity and cross‐border spillovers that operate through economic linkages between U.S. states. To this end, we use emergency declarations triggered by natural disasters and estimate their effects using a monthly global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model for U.S. states. Impulse responses highlight the nationwide effects of weather‐related disasters that hit individual regions. Taking into account economic linkages between states allows capturing much stronger spillovers than those associated with mere spatial proximity. The results underscore the importance of geographic heterogeneity for impact evaluation and the critical role of supply‐side propagation mechanisms.