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删失与极端损失:函数收敛性及尾部拟合优度应用

Censored and extreme losses: Functional convergence and applications to tail goodness-of-fit

Insurance Mathematics and Economics · 2025
被引 0
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

建立了极端Nelson-Aalen和极端Kaplan-Meier估计量的函数收敛性,用于捕捉删失损失的重尾行为,并基于此提出了两种选择顺序统计量个数的规则,通过模拟和法国车险理赔数据验证了有效性。

Abstract

This paper establishes the functional convergence of the Extreme Nelson–Aalen and Extreme Kaplan–Meier estimators, which are designed to capture the heavy-tailed behaviour of censored losses. The resulting limit representations can be used to obtain the distributions of functionals with respect to the so-called tail process. For instance, we may recover the convergence of a censored Hill estimator, and we further investigate two goodness-of-fit statistics for the tail of the loss distribution. Using the latter limit theorems, we propose two rules for selecting a suitable number of order statistics, both based on test statistics derived from the functional convergence results. The effectiveness of these selection rules is investigated through simulations and an application to a real dataset comprised of French motor insurance claim sizes.

极端值理论删失数据保险精算统计推断